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src/site/img/user/_resources/IMG-20241106232533917.jpg
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{"dg-publish":true,"permalink":"/bookmarks/fantasy/guide-to-the-silmarillion-of-beleriand-and-its-realms/","tags":["books","fantasy","lotr","reading","tolkien"]}
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---
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[teawithtolkien.com](https://www.teawithtolkien.com/blog/quentasilm14)
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---
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Map of Beleriand Included in The Silmarillion
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[
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](https://www.deviantart.com/sirielle/art/Beleriand-Realms-410357432)
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“Beleriand - Realms” by Sirielle on DeviantArt. Shared with permission
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The River Sirion divided Beleriand into two parts: East and West Beleriand.
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## **North:**
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- Morgoth’s domain: Utumno, the Ered Engrin (“Iron Mountains”), Angband (“Hells of Iron”), and the towers of Thangorodrim. Filled with filth and desolation.
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## **West Beleriand:**
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- West of the River Sirion
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- Hithlum
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- Hithlum, which was fair but cold. This area was held by Fingolfin and Fingon. Fingon was given dominion over Dor-lómin.
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- Nevrast: Turgon
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- held by Fingolfin’s son Turgon (before he went to Gondolin)
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- Nargothrond: Finrod Felagund
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- “To the west lay the realm of Nargothrond—which extended from Sirion to the sea except for the Falas, kept by Círdan, close in friendship with Finrod—and was ruled by Finrod Felagund.”
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- Brithombar: Cirdan
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## **East Beleriand:**
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- East of the River Sirion
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- Ard-Galen
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- was the wide green plain that lay between Dorthonion and Angband. Ultimately this region was destroyed by the Dagor Bragollach (“Battle of the Sudden Flame”) in which Morgoth sent forth fire and poisonous fumes from Angband and destroyed this area. After this, it was called Anfauglith.
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- Dorthonion: Angrod and Aegnor
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- To the east of Dorthonion:
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- Maedhros held the northernmost realm in the March of Maedhros.
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- Doriath: Thingol and Melian
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- which lay within the Girdle of Melian and into which no one could pass against King Thingol’s will.
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- Eastern Belerian: Amrod and Amras
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- Lothlann: Maedhros and Maglor
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- Himlad: Celegorm and Curufin
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- Thargelion: Caranthir
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## **South:**
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- Ossiriand: land of the Green Elves
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- “In Eastern Beleriand, from the north, flowed the river Gelion, which split into the seven rivers after which Ossiriand—the Land of the Seven Rivers—was named. Ossiriand was bordered in the East by the Blue Mountains (Ered Luin/Ered Lindon). In Ossiriand, the Green Elves (Laiquendi) lived, and the Noldor named the mountains Ered Lindon after the sound of their singing.”
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## Key Quote:
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> "But after the coming of the Sun rich grass arose there, and while Angband was besieged and its gates shut there were green things even among the pits and broken rocks before the doors of hell."
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Beleriand (marked in red) during the time of *The Lord of the Rings.*
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---
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{"dg-publish":true,"permalink":"/bookmarks/ideas-and-theories/is-success-luck-or-hard-work/","tags":["life","luck","productivity","scientific","statistics","theory","work","youtube"]}
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---
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By Veritasium
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During the COVID lockdown, a particular headline went viral: "Nearly half of men say they do most of the homeschooling... three percent of women agree." This isn't about debating who is right or wrong but serves as an excellent example of egocentric bias: most people believe they do the majority of the work.
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For instance, researchers have asked authors of multi-author papers how much of the work they personally contributed. When they totaled the responses, the sum often reached 140%. Similarly, when couples estimate how much housework they do, the combined total almost always exceeds 100%. Interestingly, this overestimation persists even when couples are asked about their contribution to fights or messiness at home. So, why does this happen?
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It's because we vividly remember everything we do but are less aware of others' contributions. This leads us to overestimate our efforts and underestimate those of others. This bias extends beyond household chores and influences how we perceive the role of external factors, such as luck, in our success.
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Consider hockey players as an example. Ask a professional hockey player how they reached the NHL, and they'll likely credit their hard work, determination, and supportive coaches. However, few would mention the significant advantage of being born in January. Yet, statistics show that players born early in the year are disproportionately represented in top-tier leagues, likely due to cutoff dates for youth hockey leagues. These early birthdays translate into physical advantages that are compounded over years through better coaching and more playtime. By the time these players reach professional levels, the impact of this early advantage is significant. But do these players attribute their success to their birth month? Probably not.
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This phenomenon extends beyond sports. For example, being born in a prosperous country significantly impacts income potential. Around half of the income variance globally can be attributed to the country of residence. Someone born in a country with a low gross national income will struggle to earn much, regardless of their talent or hard work.
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However, many people resist acknowledging the role of luck in their success, as it seems to diminish the value of their hard work and talent. People often view success as the result of either skill or luck, but in reality, both play a role. For instance, when track and field world records were set, seven out of eight athletes benefited from a tailwind. While their talent and dedication were essential, luck played a role in achieving the record.
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This principle applies to competitive fields like becoming a NASA astronaut. In 2017, only 11 applicants were selected from over 18,000. Even if luck accounts for just 5% of the selection process, simulations reveal that most of those selected would differ if luck played no role. When competition is fierce, talent and hard work alone are not enough; a bit of luck is essential.
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Yet, luck is often invisible. Like unrecognized housework, it's easy to overlook. This tendency to downplay luck can even motivate people to work harder, as believing you're in control encourages effort. However, this can lead to a distorted sense of entitlement, especially among those who achieve wealth or power. They may attribute their success solely to their efforts, ignoring the circumstances that helped them along the way. This mindset can perpetuate inequality and reduce generosity toward others.
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One striking example involves a study where participants were randomly assigned as team leaders. Despite their status being purely chance-based, they consistently claimed extra rewards, like cookies in an experiment, reflecting an unconscious sense of entitlement. Similarly, in a donation experiment, those who attributed good outcomes to their efforts donated less than those who acknowledged external factors.
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This bias has societal implications, especially for leaders who set policies. While their success is due in part to their talent and hard work, they may lack awareness of the role luck played, leading them to underestimate the challenges faced by others. This lack of empathy can influence how resources are allocated, perpetuating inequality.
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Ironically, acknowledging our good fortune can make us more likable and even happier. Expressing gratitude for the role of luck in our lives fosters a more balanced view of success. For example, a biotech entrepreneur who credited luck for their success was perceived as kinder and more relatable in a study. Gratitude also allows us to appreciate the supportive circumstances that enabled our achievements.
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On a personal note, I am deeply grateful for the fortunate events in my life. For example, a shoutout from Michael Stevens of Vsauce in 2012 led to a significant boost in my YouTube channel, allowing me to focus on content creation full-time. Even meeting my wife resulted from a random interaction sparked by a social media post. These events remind me of the profound impact of chance.
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In conclusion, we must recognize the role of both effort and luck in success. Believing in complete control over our destiny can motivate us, but understanding the influence of luck fosters gratitude and a desire to help others. By increasing awareness of our own good fortune, we can contribute to a fairer society and extend a helping hand to those less fortunate.
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To embody this philosophy, I’m giving away 100 Snatoms kits to those who can’t afford them. Snatoms, a magnetic molecular modeling kit I created, aims to make learning fun and intuitive. With every purchase using the code "giveluck," I’ll donate a kit to someone in need, up to 100 donations. Together, we can spread a little more luck and opportunity. Thank you for watching and for all the good luck I’ve had.
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src/site/notes/Bookmarks/Ideas and Theories/Parkinson’s Law.md
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{"dg-publish":true,"permalink":"/bookmarks/ideas-and-theories/parkinson-s-law/","tags":["halloffame","mind","productivity","work"]}
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---
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# What Is Parkinson's Law?
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Summary
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Parkinson’s Law states that work expands to fill the time available, leading to procrastination and increased complexity. To avoid falling victim to this law, strategies such as careful planning, realistic deadlines, and breaking tasks into smaller steps can be effective. By being aware of Parkinson’s Law and implementing these strategies, individuals can optimize their time management and productivity.
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Westend61 / Getty Images
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Parkinson’s law is an axiom that states: “==Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion==.” In other words, things become harder to complete when more time is given to complete it as the build-up to the task becomes stressful and daunting. The adage was named for Cyril Northcote Parkinson, who first described the phenomenon in a 1955 humor essay published in “The Economist.”1
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Parkinson’s law is not a scientific principle. Instead, it is an observation of a phenomenon that many people have experienced. As first described by Parkinson, it can explain the expansion of organizations or bureaucracies. However, it can also be a helpful way to think about other types of work, including personal productivity.
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## Understanding Parkinson’s Law
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The main premise of Parkinson’s law is that the complexity of a task tends to grow the more time is allotted for its completion.
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### An Example of How This Law Works
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For example, if you give yourself a week to finish something that would only take an hour to complete, then that one-hour task will grow in complexity, requiring more time and resources than were originally needed.
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==Parkinson's law can also lead people to procrastinate==, leaving tasks until right before they are due. You might initially feel relieved that you have plenty of time to finish a project, only to put it off as long as possible.
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This expansion means that tasks become even more daunting, requiring much more mental energy. This means that they frequently become a source of [stress](https://www.verywellmind.com/stress-and-health-3145086)and anxiety.
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When you find yourself finishing the task, you might feel a sense of relief ==but also wonder why the project became so much more of a burden in your mind than it was in real life==. The “extra time” that the task requires often isn’t related to the task itself—it’s mental stress caused by worrying about getting it done.
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## Giving Yourself Too Much Time Can Backfire
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In Parkinson’s original example, a woman’s sole task for the day was to mail a postcard. As a result of having the entire day to complete the simple task, the amount of work and time required expanded to fill the whole day.
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The fictional woman spends a half-hour searching for her reading glasses. Writing the postcard takes another two hours. More time is spent finding a stamp, writing the address, and walking the postcard to the post office.
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While Parkinson’s original example was exaggerated for humous effect, it also clearly illustrated how giving yourself too much time to do a simple task makes it more complex and time-consuming.
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Some researchers have proposed that Parkinson's law can also apply to how fast and how much people benefit from psychotherapy. For example, brief psychotherapies that involve establishing a set completion date might result in the "work" expanding to fill the time available.2
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## Explanations for Parkinson's Law
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One reason why this phenomenon happens lies in how people tend to approach tasks. ==Research indicates that when people start a new project, they tend to focus on how much time they have available to do it instead of how much time the task would take to complete.3==
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This approach naturally means that tasks become more time-consuming and onerous than they likely are. By focusing on how much time we have to do something, we assume that the task will require that much time.
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## How to Avoid Falling Victim to Parkinson’s Law
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Parkinson’s law isn’t a magic formula or a fixed rule. But it is an observation you can use to help you become more productive. Some strategies that can help you make the most of your time without falling victim to Parkinson’s law include.
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### Plan Your Time Carefully
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When you have a lot of time to complete a task, it’s easy to push it off until later. But if you plan your time carefully and set deadlines for yourself, you can avoid falling into the [procrastination](https://www.verywellmind.com/the-psychology-of-procrastination-2795944) trap.
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### Write Down Your Goals
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Whatever your goal happens to be, write it down. Track your progress by regularly checking in and noting the progress you've made, what still needs to be done, and whether your final goal has changed at all over the course of the project.4
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This type of reflective goal-tracking not only helps keep you accountable, but it can also help you better [visualize](https://www.verywellmind.com/visualization-for-relaxation-2584112) your progress, your remaining work, and whether or not the project is appearing more daunting than it really is.
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### Set Realistic Deadlines
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Avoid setting arbitrary deadlines and instead focus on how long each aspect of the project actually takes. Instead, think about how long a task will realistically take to complete. While this might not always be clear, consider past experiences as a guide. Instead of focusing on a date in the future when the task must be done by, think about how soon you can get it done and out of your way.
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When you have a clear understanding of how long a task should take, you can avoid the tendency to expand the work to fill the time you have available.
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### Prioritize Your Tasks
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If you have a lot of tasks to complete, it’s important to prioritize them. By identifying which tasks are most important, you can ensure that you focus on them first and not get bogged down by less important tasks.
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### Use a Timer
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One effective way to avoid Parkinson’s law is to use a timer. When you know that you only have a certain amount of time to complete a task, you’re less likely to expand the work to fill the available time.
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### Break Tasks Down
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Break larger projects into smaller tasks and give yourself self-imposed deadlines throughout the project. When facing a big project, it can often seem more daunting and time-consuming than it actually is. Instead of making progress, you might feel overwhelmed and unsure where to begin.
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Chunking is an effective solution that involves breaking up a larger project into smaller, more manageable steps. This strategy can help you work more effectively and may reduce the impact of Parkinson's law by speeding up your progress.5
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### Take Regular Breaks
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When you’re working on a project, it’s important to take regular breaks. This will help you avoid burnout and keep your mind fresh. Try working on a project during your most productive period and [take a break](https://www.verywellmind.com/why-you-should-take-a-break-3144576) when you start to feel distracted or less motivated. Just make sure that you don’t use the break as an excuse to procrastinate.
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### Recap
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Strategies that can help you combat Parkinson's law include planning your time, writing down goals, using realistic deadlines, and prioritizing tasks. Breaking tasks into smaller steps and setting a time to focus on each step can also help.
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## Use Time Management Strategies
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You can also use many different [time management strategies](https://www.verywellmind.com/how-to-use-time-blocking-to-manage-your-day-4797509) to avoid Parkinson’s law. Using these strategies, you can ensure that you make the most of your time and avoid expanding the work to fill the time you have available.
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Strategies that can help you manage your time wisely include:
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- Utilizing a [daily planner](https://www.verywellmind.com/adhd-friendly-daily-planner-tips-20902) and other tools such as time trackers and reminders
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- Setting aside time for specific tasks and blocking out distractions
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- [Having a routine](https://www.verywellmind.com/morning-routine-4174576)
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- Getting organized, so you don't have to waste time looking for important items
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- Avoiding [multitasking](https://www.verywellmind.com/multitasking-2795003), which reduces productivity and takes up more time
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Research suggests that time management can positively affect productivity—but it actually has an even stronger impact on well-being. Learning to manage your time well can reduce emotional exhaustion, stress, and work-life conflict.6
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## A Word From Verywell
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While Parkinson’s law is a phenomenon that can lead to wasted time and inefficient work, it doesn’t have to be a problem if you’re aware of it. Using some of the strategies above, you can avoid falling victim to Parkinson’s law and make the most of your time.
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By [Kendra Cherry, MSEd](https://www.verywellmind.com/kendra-cherry-2794702)
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Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."
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---
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{"dg-publish":true,"permalink":"/bookmarks/knowledge/the-terrorist-timepiece-casio-f-91-w/","tags":["interesting","terrorism","war","watches"]}
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---
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**The Terrorist Timepiece - Casio F-91W**
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See also [[Bookmarks/Science and Related/Taking a Casio F91W 5km deep\|Taking a Casio F91W 5km deep]]
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The Casio F-91W’s reputation looms large in both horology and national security circles, and for good reason. The simple, cheap and effective plastic watch is likely one of the most ubiquitous timepieces on the planet, with an estimated three million produced each year since sometime in the early 1990s. However, the watch that is coveted by hipsters and former presidents alike has a more sinister utility: it has been used to deadly effect as a timer for explosive charges and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and worn regularly by members of al-Qaeda, ISIS and other transnational militant groups.
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**Observations From the Field:**
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A few years ago, I went on a temporary duty (TDY) assignment to an expeditionary warzone in support of counterterrorism operations **(REDACTED)**. On one of my first days “in country,” we traveled to a nearby makeshift prison to debrief a known ISIS member who was detained during a host-nation counterterrorism operation days before. Before entering the debriefing room, the liaison intelligence service provided us access to the ISIS member’s “pocket litter”- the items he had on his person when he was detained. Amongst the pile were two (small) black plastic Casio F-91W digital watches. “Sally,” the CIA Targeter and Subject Matter Expert who accompanied me to the prison, remarked that it was a common watch used by bomb makers as a detonation timer and while not conclusive, it was something we should follow up on during the debrief. I made a mental note to dig deeper into this during the conversation.
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Moments later, we were sitting in the dimly lit debriefing room across from the ISIS official. I activated the digital chronograph on my Breitling Aerospace, knowing that the liaison service only gave us 90 minutes to conduct the observed debrief.
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###### Casio F-91W used as a timer for explosives detonation (Photo Credit: Unknown)
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Truth is, I don’t remember the contents of the session. I wish I could say that it was the start of a Hollywood-style thriller that included car chases, shootouts and martinis with a dramatic ending with W.O.E. as the hero, but the reality of the intelligence business is much more mundane. I know we asked him about the watches, and he denied any nefarious activity. Despite our best attempts to build rapport with the detainee, we left relatively empty-handed, but nonetheless wrote up a summary of the conversation and noted the ISIS official’s “pocket litter” for future use.
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It is entirely possible that this individual was using the Casios to construct IEDs, but equally likely that he was using the timepieces for the same purpose as CIA officers rely on mechanical watches: to tell time. After over two decades of war, the ISIS militants were savvy. The most sophisticated ones developed tradecraft that could rival a Western intelligence service, and even the less experienced terrorists understood that carrying a mobile phone that constantly pings the closest cellphone towner while operational could lead to their demise. The watch offered a simple tool to tell time because even for terrorists, time matters.
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**Terrorists and Casio:**
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The Casio F-91W has become known as the “Terrorist Watch,” and here’s why. Like the Kalashnikov, Toyota Hilux, and Nokia 105 cell phones, the watch is prolific in modern conflicts. It is mass-produced, cheap, durable and available at the closest mall, souk or airport duty-free shop.
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###### 
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Usama bin Laden, a presumably pious figure who rejected branded items and anything deemed “Western,” can be seen wearing an F-91W in a number of recorded public videos (he also wore a Timex). In fact, these watches are believed to be two of the only branded items UBL was pictured wearing before his death in Abbottabad, Pakistan on May 2, 2011.
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Throughout the 1990s, F-91W watches were reportedly provided to recruits at al-Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan. While they were used for their intended purpose–to tell time–bomb makers were additionally trained to use the simple alarm and countdown features to initiate explosive charges. Combined with a circuit board, a 9-volt battery and explosive primer, the watch was a low-tech but crucial part of an effective weapon. This, of course, creates an entirely new connotation for the now-popular W.O.E. phrase “Use Your Tools”. (For the record, we do not advocate for using your tools/watches in this manner.)
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In fact, according to press reporting, a US Government study concluded that over 50 suspected al-Qaeda members housed at Guantanamo Bay were detained wearing either the F-91W or close relative, the metal Casio A159W. Of these individuals, one third were reportedly trained in explosives, and while correlation doesn't necessarily equate causation, these are patterns that should be explored.
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###### F-91W and AKS-74U, two iconic tools carried by UBL (Photo Credit: James Rupley)
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These simple digital watches are what is known in national security circles as “dual use technology,” something that at initial glance has a legitimate civilian utility but can also be used for military or paramilitary applications, i.e. as a timer for an IED, pipe bomb or shaped charge.
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One notable case of a F-91W used as a timer was in 1994, when al-Qaeda bombmaker Ramzi Yousef used the timer function for a four-hour delayed detonation of an explosive charge left under a seat on Philippines Airlines flight 434. Fortunately the explosion was not powerful enough to bring down the plane, but the timer did its job and killed a Japanese tourist. Yousef planned to use similar technology to assassinate Pope John Paul II during a visit to the Philippines the following year, according to press reporting.
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Ahmed Ressam, an al-Qaeda member trained in explosives in Afghanistan in the 1990s, was arrested in December 1999 while attempting to cross the border from Canada to the United States with four explosives outfitted with triggers composed of an F-91W and 9-volt batteries. His target was the Los Angeles International Airport in New Year’s Eve, which led to his nickname: the “Millennium Bomber.”
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###### 
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Further, throughout the years of conflict in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, Casio F-91W timepieces were commonly found in bomb-making facilities and on the wrists of local and foreign fighters as early as the Battle of Tora Bora in December 2001. Likewise, the watch was and still is common on the wrists of [US soldiers and intelligence officers](https://www.watchesofespionage.com/blogs/woe-disptach/first-in-the-role-watches-played-in-the-early-days-of-the-cias-war-in-afghanistan "Digital Watches of Espionage, The Role Watches Played in the Early Days of the CIA's War in Afghanistan"), who found some of the same practical attributes of the watch useful.
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###### Second al-Qaeda Emir Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri wearing a Casio A159W, a metal cousin of the F-91W.
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**Specs of The Casio F-91W:**
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The Casio F-91W was initially launched in 1991 and has changed very little in the over four decades of its production. It is estimated that Casio produced as many as three million units per year, which would indicate there could be over 120 million in circulation today. It is a simple tool watch with a LCD screen, stopwatch, alarm and day/date feature and boasts an impressive battery life of seven years. Currently listed on Amazon for $16.98, it can be found for even less in markets in Peshawar, Beirut or Quito.
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Apart from its use for illicit activities, the watch has itself become an icon worn by everyone from Barack Obama before he was President to Napoleon Dynamite.
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###### Napoleon Dynamite rocking the same watch as UBL, irony. (Photo Credit: Napoleon Dynamite)
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Like the Rolex Submariner or Omega Speedmaster, the much simpler Casio F-91W is an icon, something that can be used as a tool or worn as a fashion statement. It also even evokes a sense of 1980s nostalgia. Visit your local coffee shop and you are likely to see an F-91W on the wrist of a beanie-wearing hipster as he (ironically) types away on his MacBook Pro.
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To be clear, we are not implicating Casio in any misdeeds as a company. It would be naïve and reckless to criticize a company for the use of their effective timepieces for wrongdoing. That said, these watches will likely continue to proliferate in future conflict zones and nonpermissive environments and be used in IEDs. Watches are tools.
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**If you enjoyed this article, please consider signing up for our weekly free newsletter for further updates [HERE](https://eepurl.us8.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=346ea45fb0ef1a4fc60cb11e2&id=9c4ac1b14c "Email Sign Up").**
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**This Dispatch has been reviewed by the CIA’s Prepublication Classification Review Board to prevent the disclosure of classified information.**
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**Read Next: [CIA Analysis Of Foreign Leaders’ Timepieces](https://www.watchesofespionage.com/blogs/woe-dispatch/cia-intelligence-analysis-of-foreign-leaders-timepieces "CIA Analysis Of Foreign Leaders’ Timepieces")**
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###### F-91W and AKS-74U, two iconic tools (Photo Credit: James Rupley)
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